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JSTAT

Baccarat and Blackjack Card Counting

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If you are willing to bet with your head, not over it, winning long-term at baccarat and 21 can be had via counting cards. I worked in the casino industry as a craps/21 dealer in Reno, Lake Tahoe, and Las Vegas before getting a legit job at the USPS. Using this experience and my love for math, I managed to make a spare income playing in casinos a couple of times a year for the last 30 years. I shared some of the knowledge on YouTube and Twitter to the dismay of "recognized experts" who refuse to address my serious concerns

Casino/Advantage Play consultant Eliot Jacobson did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for the Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1. I upped the ante by tracking ten cards with my JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with an 8/9 side count (Quantum Strategy) and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card Banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card (on plus JSTAT Counts) along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional mini/midi baccarat. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminishes the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as the third card determines many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's, 9's, and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for the Player side as the third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are paid 1.1 and not 0.95:1.

Side counting the 8/9's are just as effective in blackjack as it is in the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet or reducing the Player bet house advantage at conventional baccarat. At blackjack, with a plus JSTAT Count with more 8/9's remaining than normal, our double downs will improve on 10/11 and the dealer will bust more often than average. In my opinion, the side counting of 8/9's with the JSTAT Count enhances card counting at blackjack and baccarat to the point of long-term wins.

One day, I'll expose the "experts" who push blackjack Level One counts such as the Hi-Lo Count and Zen Count among others that doesn't include the side counting of 8/9's. With most 8/9's depleted than normal, the dealer will connect more on stiffs and our double downs on 10/11 will weaken. This ignorance eliminates most of the advantage (if not all) from Hi-Lo/Zen Counts or other linear counts.

A recent study by MIT and CalTech researchers found that side counting (Quantum Strategy or Entanglement) increases a card counter's advantage. How can "recognized blackjack experts" miss this? Many have played and lost in the long run. "Those who can't do, teach". Thus the book writing to echo the sentiment that card counting is easy money. It is not! Study hard and make sure after hundreds of thousands of hands at the kitchen table to be convinced. You might find practicing just as enjoyable as playing in casinos. I have during this pandemic!

Updated 10-04-2020 at 04:55 AM by JSTAT

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