President 2016

[sonatine]

It appears that Trump did, after all, have the common sense to take Christie aside and explain that he was a toxic oaf with no political future, but that he appreciates the endorsement and if Christie does his sock puppet thing a while longer, Trump will at least not say so in public.

[TheXFactor]

Kasich and Carson must know they can't win, right?

Cruz and Rubio will just try to steal away enough delegates from Trump so he won't have enough to get the nomination.

Trump may have to make a deal with Rubio or Cruz.

[Muck Ficon]

Kasich and Carson must know they can't win, right?

Cruz and Rubio will just try to steal away enough delegates from Trump so he won't have enough to get the nomination.

Trump may have to make a deal with Rubio or Cruz.

Cruz and Rubio aren't going anywhere. That's actually good for Trump. Pretty much ensures him the nomination. I really don't think Cruz and Rubio can steal enough delegates to prevent Trump from winning. The only way Trump is going to be beat is if Cruz or Rubio drop out.

[FPS_Russia]

They done fucked up, this is the straw that broke the camels back. Bernie Sanders is now a lock to win the primary and general, book it.

[Dan Druff]

Cruz making a comeback in Alaska.

Down 35 to 33.6 at the moment, but he's getting closer.

Right now he's a little above +300 on PredictIt. I considered buying more of him when he was still at over +1000 when I saw him starting to catch up. Should have.

Anyway, we will see where this goes. I think he still loses, but Alaska is so weird and so small population-wise, anything can happen.

[FPS_Russia]

We know we are the majority, now we're motivated.
It's all over but the counting.

[Daly]

I just hope Trump picks Urban Meyer or Kasich to be his VP. Either guy gets him Ohio and he needs Ohio to win.

[Dan Druff]

Cruz is going to win Alaska.

Kinda regretting not buying those extra shares at +1000 when I had a chance just when I saw him rising.

Oh well... at least I will have made about $1100 when this is all done tonight.

[Muck Ficon]

Cruz is going to win Alaska.

Kinda regretting not buying those extra shares at +1000 when I had a chance just when I saw him rising.

Oh well... at least I will have made about $1100 when this is all done tonight.

[Dan Druff]

abrown83 or someone else, explain this:

Does PredictIt really charge both a 10% fee on any profits PLUS a 5% withdrawal fee? Because if so... that's brutal.

[Sanlmar]

another huge win for Rubio

if he can finish 2nd above Cruz in Florida he will be unstoppable

he's the only one who can beat Hillary. Yeah, nobody wants to vote for him now .... but its all about the big picture

[Dan Druff]

It's over for Rubio.

He had a lot going for him, but he just wasn't ready for the big time. Maybe next time around, if he matures a bit as a candidate. His 2016 candidacy looked like it was thrown together too quickly by people who thought they had a winning formula for him, but in reality had no clue.

Trump disrupted everything. Even Christie, who by all accounts is an unelectable jerk, did his share of damage.

Maybe in a gentler field of candidates, such as that seen in 2008 or 2012, today's Rubio would have succeeded. But not this time.

The nomination is pretty much Trump's, though he can't completely neglect the rising Cruz. I don't think Cruz has enough to get it done, but if the public gets the idea that Rubio's campaign is melting down, then the "not Trump" vote can end up being powerful enough to carry Cruz to victory. Probably won't happen, though, especially because Cruz himself just isn't very likable.

While President Hillary is now looking more likely than ever, President Trump also can't be dismissed. If Hillary fails to connect with working-class, middle-of-the-road Americans, she could lose to Trump, especially if Trump sees high voter turnout on his behalf.

If it does end up Hillary versus Trump, the country loses no matter what. The choice becomes an authoritarian narcissist or an opportunistic, dishonest shadeball. It's honestly hard for me to picture myself clickng off the tab to vote for either of them.

[ftpjesus]

another huge win for Rubio

if he can finish 2nd above Cruz in Florida he will be unstoppable

he's the only one who can beat Hillary. Yeah, nobody wants to vote for him now .... but its all about the big picture

Are you drunk Sanlmar??? Rubios won one fucking state.. The same solo state that Walter Mondale won in 84 against Reagan.. MN is a liberal establishment bastion for the most part..

The thing that saved Cruzs ass tonight was winning TX and OK. Not many give 2 shits about Alaska anyway and Cruz won only 1 more delegate then Trump.. Go look at the numbers.. Rubio has barely 1/3 the delegates of Trump (87) Trump is fast approaching 300 (285).. Hell even if Cruz (161) were to get Rubios delegates he'd still be behind Trump by 29 delegates.. I have family in FLorida and believe me Rubio likely will be destroyed in Florida.. the Cubans are likely going to go for Cruz because they now see him as a turncoat and they will either get behind the other Hispanic or Trump (unknown for sure which way the Cuban population is quite pissed over Obamas sellout to the Castro brothers and could see Trump as a way to put the screws back on Raul and Fidel and their little banana Republic)

Even the current Governor has no use for Rubio after he weaseled funds from the FL GOP in what should've earned him silver bracelets and a stint in prison for embezzlement. The word is also getting out finally on Rubios stance with Adelson not because its directly a poker player issue but because its seen as Rubio being a hypocrite on States Rights and the 10th Amendment which puts him in the same light as every other GOP RINO whos in bed with the lobbyists in DC.. Rubio already knew he couldn't win re-election in Florida which is why he chose not to seek re-election despite having the opportunity to do so (would've been no skin off his nose as if he won the GOP Governor would've appointed his replacement if he were elected President or VP)..

[Pooh]

March 15 is the key date. That's when the winner takes all states begin and there are some biggies that first day. If Trump sweeps then it's over. Florida is that day. I predict an endorsement for Trump from the governor a few days to a week in advance.

[MumblesBadly]

another huge win for Rubio

if he can finish 2nd above Cruz in Florida he will be unstoppable

he's the only one who can beat Hillary. Yeah, nobody wants to vote for him now .... but its all about the big picture

Are you drunk Sanlmar??? Rubios won one fucking state.. The same solo state that Walter Mondale won in 84 against Reagan.. MN is a liberal establishment bastion for the most part..

The thing that saved Cruzs ass tonight was winning TX and OK. Not many give 2 shits about Alaska anyway and Cruz won only 1 more delegate then Trump.. Go look at the numbers.. Rubio has barely 1/3 the delegates of Trump (87) Trump is fast approaching 300 (285).. Hell even if Cruz (161) were to get Rubios delegates he'd still be behind Trump by 29 delegates.. I have family in FLorida and believe me Rubio likely will be destroyed in Florida.. the Cubans are likely going to go for Cruz because they now see him as a turncoat and they will either get behind the other Hispanic or Trump (unknown for sure which way the Cuban population is quite pissed over Obamas sellout to the Castro brothers and could see Trump as a way to put the screws back on Raul and Fidel and their little banana Republic)

Even the current Governor has no use for Rubio after he weaseled funds from the FL GOP in what should've earned him silver bracelets and a stint in prison for embezzlement. The word is also getting out finally on Rubios stance with Adelson not because its directly a poker player issue but because its seen as Rubio being a hypocrite on States Rights and the 10th Amendment which puts him in the same light as every other GOP RINO whos in bed with the lobbyists in DC.. Rubio already knew he couldn't win re-election in Florida which is why he chose not to seek re-election despite having the opportunity to do so (would've been no skin off his nose as if he won the GOP Governor would've appointed his replacement if he were elected President or VP)..

Agreed. As an establishment Republican, Rubio broke an unspoken rule to not go after elder members of the party. And doubly so because he went after a one-time mentor (Jeb Bush). I'm guessing that turned him off a lot of potential establishment GOPers from supporting him.

[abrown83]

abrown83 or someone else, explain this:

Does PredictIt really charge both a 10% fee on any profits PLUS a 5% withdrawal fee? Because if so... that's brutal.

Yes, the reason it is still worth it is because you are playing with massive fish when it comes to understanding odds so you tend to find a lot of great deals.

I figure effective rake runs me 8-12%

[abrown83]

March 15 is the key date. That's when the winner takes all states begin and there are some biggies that first day. If Trump sweeps then it's over. Florida is that day. I predict an endorsement for Trump from the governor a few days to a week in advance.

Pretty much this

The door was opened last night by Trump massively underperforming but it's still only open a little bit.

[FPS_Russia]

[Jayjami]

March 15 is the key date. That's when the winner takes all states begin and there are some biggies that first day. If Trump sweeps then it's over. Florida is that day. I predict an endorsement for Trump from the governor a few days to a week in advance.

An endorsement from Voldemort is a good thing in Florida? Man, that place is even weirder than I thought.

[rum dick]

It's over for Rubio.

I don't know about that. He has the money and support to take it all the way to the convention and a pretty good shot of taking the nomination from Trump on the delegates' second ballot.

I ran the numbers on a delegate model and the possibility that Trump is denied the votes he needs to avoid a convention floor vote is a lot more likely than Trump getting the 1200 plus votes he needs to win the nomination outright. This becomes a near certainty if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida. Even then it can still be done even if Trump wins one of those states (I'm not sure if that's true if Trump wins both of them). Let's say Trump fails to win Ohio and Florida, in that case all Rubio or someone else needs to do is pick off a couple/few states like Minnesota (and Rubio already has one in the bag with Utah) and maybe somebody other than Trump needs to win California...maybe.

Plus, Rubio literally has nothing to lose. He's not running for reelection in the Senate so it's not like has to worry about saving his Senate seat or his political career (his political career is over if Trump wins the nomination). And even if Rubio fights all the way to the convention and loses or he fails to stop Trump from getting the outright win, there are gonna be a bunch of grateful establishment types with money who will reward him for "fighting the good fight to save the soul of the party" and hook him up with cushy lawyer and consultant gigs. Or he can get a job with Fox News ala Huckabee. The point is that losing a drawn out fight with Trump will have zero effect on his ability to clean up in the private sector post-election so why not go for it, especially with the Tump U trial set for July and Donald being required to testify at said trial.

The ONLY way it's over for Rubio is if the donations to his campaign and various super PACs dry up, and so far, there's no sign of that happening or Trump wins Ohio and Florida.