*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

[SPIT this]

If youth and agility are important to you, Joe Biden is now the youngest man running for the nomination.

[Dan Druff]

November 5:

Biden is probably going to lose Iowa and NH.

I'm going to wait for him to lose both, then fire more on him. Odds should get much better for a Biden bet after that, provided nothing happens in between.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post867458



November 6:

Of course he (Biden) will crush in SC. That's a given. Any state with a large percentage black population will automatically go to him in the primary, just as they did to Hillary in 2016.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post867532



November 12:

If Biden can somehow take Iowa AND New Hampshire, he's looking excellent to be the nominee. But I don't think he will take both of those, and in fact will likely lose both. I still think he's the nominee though, because he's the only major candidate with strong black support.

Buttigieg will run into a brick wall in any state where there's a lot of black people, because they just won't vote for a gay cracker. Ain't gonna happen. They've said so in focus groups.

Also, Mayor Pete has dodged any serious attacks/criticism/scrutiny thus far. He wasn't seen as a threat, and no candidate wanted to be seen as the asshole attacking the young gay candidate who was a cinderella story to even be there. However, if he starts to look like he has even a chance to win, you'll start seeing him picked apart.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post868170


March 3, 2020:

[BCR]

If youth and agility are important to you, Joe Biden is now the youngest man running for the nomination.

What’s the odds one of these candidates doesn’t get Wuhan by election traveling all around and shaking 10k hands every day? Feels inevitable

[TheXFactor]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1234648694810607616

[Dan Druff]

Pretty ridiculous from a technical standpoint that Predictit needs 1 hour of maintenance shutdown per day.

Look at large poker sites. At most they do a similar shutdown once per week.

And then of course are the predictable crashes and freezes on election days when things rapidly change.

Very poorly run operation given its size.

[abrown83]

A huge factor overlooked by many is the 15% threshold to earn delegates, particularly in CA.

No doubt Bernie will win the state, but the last poll shows the following:

Bernie 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%

Be aware that there's early voting, so Buttigieg and Klobuchar will get votes.

Anyway, there are 415 delegates at stake.

If somehow everyone gets under 15% beside Bernie, he takes them all, and more importantly, gets a 415 delegate boost over Biden. However, if Biden even scores 15%, he gets a nice cut of delegates (probably at least 80).

If the voting goes exactly as the poll above, Bernie would get 223, Biden 108, and Warren 84. This would give Bernie just a 115 delegate edge in a state which is supposed to help him immensely, and could spell real trouble for him.

I think it could be even worse for Bernie because California is by Congressional district and it has a few very liberal districts but the rest might be almost even or Biden wins.

[Dan Druff]

High chance that Klobuchar and Buttigieg were offered cabinet positions in Biden's administration -- if one of them isn't already VP -- provided he wins, of course.

For Mayor Pete, such a position would be super important, because he has nowhere to go in Indiana politics. It's a red state, he already got beat hard (against a mediocre candidate) when he ran for statewide office, and Indiana itself isn't particularly high profile on the national stage. He can't run again as Mayor-Pete-but-older-now, or he likely fails. He needs some experience in Washington.

Klobuchar already has that experience, but she's probably happy to take a cabinet position anyway at this point, and might be considered for VP. I've gotta think Biden chooses a woman. Master Scalir thinks he'll pick Warren, which isn't as much of a longshot as you may think. It's also possible that Biden and the DNC don't want Warren dropping out now, because she mainly siphons votes for Bernie. If they're really sneaky, they already have it worked out with Warren to drop out much deeper into the race, and then get rewarded later. In fact, she could hand her delegates to Biden, and that could really fuck Bernie in the ass. Of course, that would be the end of her cred as a left-wing candidate.

[MumblesBadly]

High chance that Klobuchar and Buttigieg were offered cabinet positions in Biden's administration -- if one of them isn't already VP -- provided he wins, of course.

For Mayor Pete, such a position would be super important, because he has nowhere to go in Indiana politics. It's a red state, he already got beat hard (against a mediocre candidate) when he ran for statewide office, and Indiana itself isn't particularly high profile on the national stage. He can't run again as Mayor-Pete-but-older-now, or he likely fails. He needs some experience in Washington.

Klobuchar already has that experience, but she's probably happy to take a cabinet position anyway at this point, and might be considered for VP. I've gotta think Biden chooses a woman. Master Scalir thinks he'll pick Warren, which isn't as much of a longshot as you may think. It's also possible that Biden and the DNC don't want Warren dropping out now, because she mainly siphons votes for Bernie. If they're really sneaky, they already have it worked out with Warren to drop out much deeper into the race, and then get rewarded later. In fact, she could hand her delegates to Biden, and that could really fuck Bernie in the ass. Of course, that would be the end of her cred as a left-wing candidate.

Except for Secretary of State, every other cabinet position is a bit of a step down from a Senate seat for a popular sitting senator like Klobuchar.

Also, Warren’s cred with progressives is already in the shitter. I’m really hoping Bernie beats her soundly in Massachusetts today.

Also, Biden would be smartest to pick Stacey Abrams. Biden’s strength with older Black voters probably doesn’t’t translate into much support among younger ones. Abrams as his running mate, especially because Biden’s mental health seems so suspect given his age, would likely help to get them to the polls in the crucial Rust Belt states, something Hillary Clinton wasn’t able to due (or seem to even try to).

[BCR]

I’m sure they got offered. Their offers are contingent on plague and significant economic troubles. The worth of their offers are absolutely contingent on those factors. They had zero chance of winning and there’s a non-zero chance of those things, so not a bad calculus, but not exactly promising.

For all the trump derangement talk, and whatever else, clearly it exists in reliably blue states. On my family’s life, I don’t know a single person sitting around posting left wing stuff on social media all day. Not one. I know dozens posting vitriolic right wing garbage all day long.

For all the trump derangement talk, I see no extra enthusiasm in these primary states despite there being multiple candidates. It’s basically standard turnout. I see Trump supporters showing up in record numbers to support an unopposed(in any real way} candidate. If you see enthusiasm, it will be in already blue states.

These candidates simply suck. The only enthusiasm surrounds Bernie, and his numbers are simply too small. I find myself hating the DNC, the SJW wing of the progressives, and I hate the GOP more than ever. I’ll get up and pull the lever for every Dem candidate for health care purposes strictly out of self interest, but I can’t believe what a mess they’ve made of this. Whether Biden or Bernie takes the plurality, a giant swath of the base is not showing up for the general short of plague or severe economic downturn.

This is an absolute rock bottom political landscape with a geriatric mentally ill president being opposed by geriatric losers. How could it be worse?

I’m 100% down with taking the L if it wasn’t for health care concerns in a trump second term and and Trump and Pence running point on an emerging plague. If it turns out to blow over and not be that bad, I can easily see myself voting all down ballot Dem and not voting for president at all.

[1marley1]

November 5:



https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post867458



November 6:

Of course he (Biden) will crush in SC. That's a given. Any state with a large percentage black population will automatically go to him in the primary, just as they did to Hillary in 2016.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post867532



November 12:

If Biden can somehow take Iowa AND New Hampshire, he's looking excellent to be the nominee. But I don't think he will take both of those, and in fact will likely lose both. I still think he's the nominee though, because he's the only major candidate with strong black support.

Buttigieg will run into a brick wall in any state where there's a lot of black people, because they just won't vote for a gay cracker. Ain't gonna happen. They've said so in focus groups.

Also, Mayor Pete has dodged any serious attacks/criticism/scrutiny thus far. He wasn't seen as a threat, and no candidate wanted to be seen as the asshole attacking the young gay candidate who was a cinderella story to even be there. However, if he starts to look like he has even a chance to win, you'll start seeing him picked apart.

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post868170


March 3, 2020:

You missed a few... lol

bernies up like 5% on predictit in the last 48 hours.

Makes sense...

So Bernie is going to be the nominee, everyone. Let that sink in.

warren just dropped from 6c to 3c on predictit and bernie just jumped another 3 cents.

All the "Bernie woulda beaten Trump in 2016" people are going to get their wish to see it play out.

[MrTickle]

i'm no yank, but is Pete doing a southern accent here?

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1234641701106601984

[Daly]

High chance that Klobuchar and Buttigieg were offered cabinet positions in Biden's administration -- if one of them isn't already VP -- provided he wins, of course.

For Mayor Pete, such a position would be super important, because he has nowhere to go in Indiana politics. It's a red state, he already got beat hard (against a mediocre candidate) when he ran for statewide office, and Indiana itself isn't particularly high profile on the national stage. He can't run again as Mayor-Pete-but-older-now, or he likely fails. He needs some experience in Washington.

Klobuchar already has that experience, but she's probably happy to take a cabinet position anyway at this point, and might be considered for VP. I've gotta think Biden chooses a woman. Master Scalir thinks he'll pick Warren, which isn't as much of a longshot as you may think. It's also possible that Biden and the DNC don't want Warren dropping out now, because she mainly siphons votes for Bernie. If they're really sneaky, they already have it worked out with Warren to drop out much deeper into the race, and then get rewarded later. In fact, she could hand her delegates to Biden, and that could really fuck Bernie in the ass. Of course, that would be the end of her cred as a left-wing candidate.

You can absolutely guarantee Pete has a cabinet job lined up and will have full support to run for senate.

Amy may stay in the senate but will find her way into a chairmanship somewhere.

[SPIT this]

Holy shit

[BCR]

Holy shit

Kids better start making those student loan payments before they default. Don’t look good for the bern

[Daly]

I think it’s beyond fair to say at this point the match has been fixed. It’s Biden’s nomination to lose.

I think the DNC had a massive come to Jesus meeting over the past few days. Amy and Pete told to go and go quietly and Bloomberg was asked to step aside and everyone is going to get behind Joe.


Maybe I’m wrong but it seems clear to me the fix is in.

Holy shit

[thesidedish]

short biden


i am loving this tho, the Bernie bros don't need any help from trump on sniffing out the scam. and like i said last page, i believe Bernie has much more of a shot to beat trump than the bumbling stooge. hyper witty trump will annihilate the guy who sounds like hes approaching .15 BAC


also, saw an interview from warren on CNN last night that was one of the fakest politician-y ive ever seen

[SPIT this]

TheXFactor, Biden's still only winning North Carolina and no other state, right?

[TheXFactor]

Holy shit

Complete Bullshit.

Because Biden won in a backwards fucked up state which was South Carolina.

Now Biden's a favorite in most states that he never campaigned in or spent money on ads?

Biden may win more than North Carolina but Bernie will win most of the 14 states in play today.

Media and DNC have conspired to fuck Bernie over.

Fox News is the only news channel giving favorable news coverage to Bernie.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1234818904289140736

[BCR]

Bet on straight demographics in every state and you won’t get hurt in any state in markets. Look at Hispanic/black ratio and over 65 to under 35 and go from there. Flip when it doubles on any good news. Don’t wait for outlying areas to come in. Bernie money is the money that overreacts so flip him and get out anywhere Hispanic like buying Az dip right now and flip at 60 when they overreact. Don’t hold for the rural areas. This is most blunt force demographic old/young/black/brown race ever. When do you see Iowa winner out before Super Tuesday? Bernie of course is going to get straight destroyed in Deep South.

[TheXFactor]

Biden is projected to finish about 375 delegates ahead of Sanders in the average simulation-Nate Silver

Nate Silver is so full of shit.

Remember he predicted a Hillary Clinton victory by a landslide.

If he loses he should eat his own shit.