Originally Posted by
ShadyJ
In 20+ years of sportsbetting thats the first time Ive heard that straight bets are sucker bets...lol keep your day job
Straight bets are sucker bets unless you are among the VERY few people who can win enough to dodge the juice.
Are there worse sucker bets? Yes, there are many, such as futures bets, teaser bets when you don't know what you're doing, and others.
But sportsbooks all make their fortunes from people who think they are smart enough to not just out handicap the oddsmakers, but do it at a pace that covers the 10% (or more) juice.
Have you read the long article about Haralabob Voulgaris and his sportsbetting career? Even he struggled until he partnered with a math guy to analyze tons of games, and they found a hole in the way second-half NBA lines were set, so they exploited the hell out of it. But after that hole was closed, even Haralabob struggled for periods of time. We're talking about the guy who is acknowledged as being one of the best sportsbettors. I laugh at people who believe that they can win at sports long term, since the ratio of those who think that versus those who can actually do it is something like 1000:1.
The edge in sportsbetting comes from finding legitimate holes in the way lines or odds are set in general, such as Haralabob's discovery of the 2nd half NBA lines, or the "Wong" NFL teasers (both of which no longer exist). When you find stuff like that, you can make a living from it. When you're just firing on straight bets, the juice will eventually eat you, just as the rake will eat an otherwise breakeven poker player over time.
In this particular bet, I found a line that I felt was wrong. Maybe it was set that way because the wind was blowing in (really holds back HRs in Chicago), but even knowing that I felt it was wrong, for the reasons I already stated. So I fired on it. However, in the average day of baseball, I would rarely find a line I felt that strongly about betting.
The $300 bet wasn't a brag. I don't really brag on these forums about anything, as I think bragging is generally an arrogant and shitty thing to do.
I wasn't thumbing my nose at the amount of $300, but rather pointing out that it's very small compared to the stakes I play poker, even when I play something like 20-40. Therefore, when I make a rare sports bet that I feel strongly about, it feels odd to bet money that will have very little impact on my gambling results.
I was also mentioning it because I wanted to bet $1k but felt underrolled on Bovada to lose that and keep playing 30/60, so I didn't fire that much.