Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

[blueodum]

Some more Ivey numbers:

His longest streak of cashing without winning is 10; by winning bracelet #10 he snapped a streak of four cashes without a win. Counting only Vegas, he snapped a 10 cash without win streak.

Ivey has played in the WSOP from 2000 to 2014, excluding 2011. In the 14 years of attendance, Ivey has won at least one bracelet in six of 14 years (7 of 14 if you count 2013 Australia). So if he keeps that rate up Ivey by himself is near even money in any given year.

Ivey has 32 top 10 finishes (excluding non-cash if any). He's won 10. Going into this year his closing rate was 9 of 31 or 29% (random would be, of course, 10%)

Ivey has 12 top 10 finishes in mixed game events; he has won four of them.

[zealanddonk]

That analysis is about a month late.

[simpdog]

That analysis is about a month late.

Also hindsight is 20/20

Also Ivey was playing cash games missed a bunch of eve ts.

Just because this year happened to lose doesn't make it -ev

[Baron Von Strucker]

gg fun sweat at least.

also is this true Druff?

date says 2014

[NaturalBornHustler]

Too many factors to come up with true odds. How about, just keeping it simple. How many times in the last ten years has at least one of them won a bracelet?

This is the exact thing I was thinking today.

Just go back from the first year one of them won one, and see how many years they missed between the two of them since that point. They both came into the game/had a similar career arc so it should be pretty easy to just go year by year.

[sd858duece]

does anyone know how much money DN/Ivey had total on that bet?

[BetCheckBet]

gg fun sweat at least.

also is this true Druff?

date says 2014

Bill Chen is a monster in limit. He also already has 6 WSOP cashes this year (every one in a different game).

[bukowski72]

This thread had some nice analysis and discussion which is rare around here.

This is Barry Greenstein in 2004-05 saying that when Ivey isn't distracted by cash games and really tries he wins or final tables it.

"I think he is the best tournament player in the world. He’s the only player to graduate from the tournament field and be successful at the biggest game. Some of the top players are still skeptical, but they don’t seem to realize he is still an improving player and he has unmatched raw talent.

I often hear people saying Phil has been less successful than he has been in the past. 2004 has been Phil’s best year in poker, but he hasn’t played many tournaments. And when he has played in a tournament event, he has played tired because of the cash game the night before. (I know because I have been in the games with him.) He also has had to adopt a style geared to build up quickly or get knocked out quickly during the event, so that he won’t wear himself out for the cash game later that night. There were two big events in 2004 where there wasn’t a big cash game: the live Fox telecast in Turning Stone, New York which Phil won and the Monte Carlo Millions in which he came in third."

I really had to search for this because Barry closed this website.

[blueodum]

That analysis is about a month late.

Not for me.

[Crowe Diddly]

He also already has 6 WSOP cashes this year (every one in a different game).

That's pretty nasty. Didn't kessler brag about something like this a few years ago?

[gut]

oh well, was a fun sweat. regardless of what Haralobob says, I would do again next year if offered.

[TheXFactor]

Ivey had been playing the 50k when this started, I didn't even know he was in this till day 2, The fucking enter whenever you want rule is what cost us, This rule is bullshit, Should be closed 2 hours after it starts. This allows them to enter up to 7 hours late with a short stack and fire away and if they win a few pots which are big at this point then they are right at the top of the chips counts, DN did this a few times.

Phil Ivey is a better player than Daniel Negreanu.

I guess if you wanted to bet just Daniel to win a bracelet, he would be a 4 to 1 underdog.

What also fucked it up was Ivey's decision to play the $1500 eight-game mix instead of the $100K at Bellagio.

[4BET]

Ivey had been playing the 50k when this started, I didn't even know he was in this till day 2, The fucking enter whenever you want rule is what cost us, This rule is bullshit, Should be closed 2 hours after it starts. This allows them to enter up to 7 hours late with a short stack and fire away and if they win a few pots which are big at this point then they are right at the top of the chips counts, DN did this a few times.

Phil Ivey is a better player than Daniel Negreanu.

I guess if you wanted to bet just Daniel to win a bracelet, he would be a 4 to 1 underdog.

What also fucked it up was Ivey's decision to play the $1500 eight-game mix instead of the $100K at Bellagio.

Yes I agree Ivey is a better player and said this early on, When Ivey built a stack in this 1500 I was much more worried then when DN had big stacks a few times

[blueodum]

The main thing to note about the two players is that Ivey has had far far more success in non-Holdem games than Negreanu, while D.N. regularly cashes in NLHE events. Non Holdem events happen to be the smaller fields and Ivey has been so good at closing in them (especially mixed and stud events) that he is (in my mind) by far the most likely player of any to win a bracelet in any given year.

[ThreeBet]

What a clusterfuck the Poker news website is. Its like the inside of the Rio spewed out a website

[shortbuspoker]

An even better bet, would be against Daniel Negreanu.

Will Daniel make a profit from tournament poker this year? Nope

Will his poker winnings excede his tournament buy-in's? No fucking way

Estimated tournament buy-in's: $3.5 to $4 million
Estimated tournament winnings: $2 to $2.5 million

[Daly]

How great is this going to be when Ivey takes down the ME.

[fluffer]

Negran interviews have become intolerable since he joined Choice, his false bravado and his delusional self belief is so grating to listen to, not to mention every second word is "bro", " yeh man".

Neg went in as a 123 lb , balding mommys boy and the Choice centre churned him out believing that he is a 6'3 220lb black dude, the next dr dre

[4Dragons]

Negran interviews have become intolerable since he joined Choice, every second word is "bro", " yeh man".

Neg went in as a 123 lb , balding mommys boy and the Choice centre churned him out believing that he is a 6'3 220lb black dude, the next dr dre

He can't hear you over the sound of himself counting out the $7,000,000 he just made.

[fluffer]

Negran interviews have become intolerable since he joined Choice, every second word is "bro", " yeh man".

Neg went in as a 123 lb , balding mommys boy and the Choice centre churned him out believing that he is a 6'3 220lb black dude, the next dr dre

He can't hear you over the sound of himself counting out the $7,000.000 he just made.

Valid point, but he reminds me of some people I know, multi millionaires, people that are either single because they are hideous looking or in loveless marriages with gold diggers. Their whole self worth is connected to their bank balance and perceived power

I train quite a few of these guys, trying to get them is some sort of shape and one would be surprised at how vulnerable and open they are with me . Don't get me wrong, I admire and respect what they have achieved, but deep down none of them seem happy or content

I told one guy that he needs to lose weight for health reasons, his reply
" I know, but it's too hard.... I know I'm a fat fuck, but I over compensate by making more money"

How much money is too much?