*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

Also:

Chicago White Sox (Holland) +173 at Detroit (Fulmer)
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) at Milwaukee (Nelson) - Under 7.5 +100
Houston (Keuchel) at Texas (Darvish) - Under 7.5 +110
Colorado (Marquez) -114 at San Diego (Richard)

I would rethink this asap?

Darvish has been getting knocked around more then a Cheap Jap massage whore!!

Oh yea once again the line moved way against you here?? o/u is now 8.5..

I got Over 7.5 -120

Good Luck!!

I call 4 HR in this game at least..

You can get under 8.5 right now everywhere -105??

Also give me KC for all you can Eat plz.

You wont be in business long TW aka Todger if you keep getting beat by the closing line..

Sports Gambling 101.. Always beat the closing number or pass on the game..

For all you poker pussies there def isnt any value in not beating the closing #

Darvish has given up 1-3 runs in his past 7 starts. Not sure where you're getting the idea that he's gotten knocked around lately.

Keuchel has been so dominant that this bet can still win, even if Darvish does have a bad game.

This is similar to the U7.5 I picked for Dodgers/Brewers. I think Kershaw is going to come back from his poor outing last time out and shut down the Brewers. Nelson is a wildcard, you never know what you're going to get with him. But even if Nelson gives up 5-6, this could still win.

[Dan Druff]

I'm not sure I really buy badguy23's closing line argument, unless you really have a strong idea where the public money is going to go.

I have noticed that most of my 12 picks so far have gone against the public. In most cases, I made them early, so I didn't bet based upon public betting. But if I notice this trend continuing, then yes, I will wait.

Also, I don't bet everything at the moment I post them. Sometimes I wait and bet later (or pass if the line gets worse to where I don't like it anymore), but I don't bother posting that here.

[ErickAA]

FWIW, from what I understand it is not really public money which drives line movement anyways (except maybe NFL football), but sharp syndicate $$, so the line might be moving away from the public, especially in sports with relatively small handles like June baseball.

I think BadGuys main point is that it is widely believed that the only way to really make $$ betting sports professionally is to have superior models where you can find soft lines and bet them before they invariably move, essentially making it so you are always on the right side of the closing line, and he is indicating you continually posting bets where the line has moved against you indicate you have no chance.

[Sanlmar]

I think what has been revealed here is this is just Druff's stream of consciousness.

Hopefully he is clearer in the future.

[BeerAndPoker]

Also:

Chicago White Sox (Holland) +173 at Detroit (Fulmer)

[Tellafriend]

Also:

Chicago White Sox (Holland) +173 at Detroit (Fulmer)

Just awful.

[Daly]

What's really awful is both the NHL and NBA have championship series going and neither one of them plan a game on a Friday night.

[Daly]

They say the true sign of a good MLB capper is someone that beats the final line.

Baseball is a really tough sport to beat. Even bad teams win 40% of the time. Too bad they did away with most of the strikeout props. It's making for a very boring summer

[Sanlmar]

Baseball is a really tough sport to beat. Even bad teams win 40% of the time. Too bad they did away with most of the strikeout props. It's making for a very boring summer

C'mon

What exactly is a bad team on a given night

That is part of the appeal and opportunity.

A great pitcher playing for a team with a bad lineup can win. Urias pitching for Dodgers can lose.

Urias & Dodgers lost to the lowly Marlins but this was highly likely despite the Dodgers lineup and fan ($) backing.

Dig deep - far more opportunity for mistakes than NFL

[Dan Druff]

Regarding the White Sox: Whoops.

I was doubting myself on that pick, too, then I made it anyway. I even reduced-bet it. Don't have last year's underdog magic at the moment, as I will still be winless on those.

Atlanta winning but not the way I expect (2-0 in the 6th). Of course, some of this bet was because it was against the Reds, who are terrible.

Not sure what to say about Dodgers. Kershaw started off looking bad, but then promptly got himself out of 2-on, 0-out. If he keeps the Brewers in the ballpark, I think he'll be ok.

Big thunderstorms in Arlington, so maybe this Texas/Houston under will be a moot point.

[Dan Druff]

So I wasn't so much expecting the Braves to win by shutout, nor was I betting based upon Arroyo giving up only 2 runs, but we also have to face the fact that both teams can't hit, so this wasn't an unlikely outcome. I just hope the Atlanta bullpen (which hasn't been bad) holds up in the 8th/9th.

Kershaw has returned to form, retiring 12 straight and striking out 9 of them. 0-0 in the 5th. The Brewers really are the type of team that Kershaw kills (power hitters, lots of strikeouts). Braun being out also doesn't hurt.

[Dan Druff]

Look at the offense today, though. So many big scores.

SF/Mia 9-0 in 7th
NY/Tor 4-6 in 7th
White Sox/Tigers 4-12 in 6th
Pirates/Mets 10-7 in 6th
Dbacks/Marlins 5-6 in 7th

A few low ones, but these 5 all hit over midway through.

[Dan Druff]

Shout out to Braves with 10 hits and not being able to score more than 2 though.

[Dan Druff]

Always gotta sweat.

Votto up with 2 on in the 8th.

Edit: Phew.

[Dan Druff]

Astros/Rangers game will get going at 7:10pm PDT

[Tellafriend]

Damn could have gotten +200 on Milwaukee tonight if they pull it out. Didn't have the heart after St. Louis crushed my spirit.

[Dan Druff]

Damn could have gotten +200 on Milwaukee tonight if they pull it out. Didn't have the heart after St. Louis crushed my spirit.

You never know which Jimmy Nelson shows up.

Sometimes it's like this, and sometimes he's terrible.

He looked good last time out, and the Dodgers have struggled the last 2 games to score, so I thought there was a good enough chance we'd see the good Nelson to where I liked the under here.

[Dan Druff]

Aaaaaaaaand looks like I might get fucked on the Braves bet.

2-0 in 9th, they hand it to Jim Johnson (who has been fairly good), and the Reds promptly hit 2 doubles back-to-back. Now 2-1 with 0 out, man at 2nd, and Schebler (16 HR) up.

[ErickAA]

Yeah, this Jim Johnson chap isn't impressing me much so far.

[Sanlmar]

I have money on another game and not Dodgers but I'm watching Kershaw

He hit 2000 strikeouts tonight. In the same league as Pedro, Johnson & Nolan Ryan

He really is appt viewing like Pedro was.


Disclaimer:
This does not constitute a Dodgers endorsement

They prolly still lose