I'm not going to reveal how I know, but let's just say that I acquired info that Karpeles has read this thread before.
Hi Mark!
I'm not going to reveal how I know, but let's just say that I acquired info that Karpeles has read this thread before.
Hi Mark!
For anyone cares, here is info on the "hard fork", including what that term means: https://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoi...rd-fork-split/
Tracing IPs again and deducing by location (Japan)...Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Any IP's from Russia
AT any rate the coming weeks will be eventful or non eventful or just neutral, that is my prediction.
Based on the Gringo thread can an administrator please ban Dan druff?
BTC yes.. But ETH has been blowing up dude its at 40.10 (up almost 5% in the last hour) as we speak.. up nearly 100% in the past week (17.55) and exploded up 27.23 the past month.. Looks to me people are dumping BTC in favor of ETH temporarily until the fork situation is resolved..
www.jokerstarspoker.com / www.jokerstarspoker.net / www.jokerstarspoker.eu
www.jokerstarspoker.club (not your mommas chinese poker app)
I am surprised to see this thought from you.
BTC yes.. But ETH has been blowing up dude its at 40.10 (up almost 5% in the last hour) as we speak.. up nearly 100% in the past week (17.55) and exploded up 27.23 the past month.. Looks to me people are dumping BTC in favor of ETH temporarily until the fork situation is resolved..
ETH, Dash and the rest of the small cap players caught attention during BTC's run up ahead of the SEC decision. This was just some late stage small cap momo. It's no proxy on fundamentals. It's late stage momo
This kid has good feel imo.
Personally, I would tweak his take by saying what you key on whilst gaming market tops is selectivity by market capitalization size. Historically , the first group to roll over is the small caps. You watch for the junk rolling over first as a sign to get ready for a big payday on the bigger players.
Just like betting sports or poker, you don't win 'em all in the markets. You make calculated guesses. I got my theory about what virtual currency is (beanies) and it's fun to test it.
I guessed SEC would not approve. But I thought a good gamble would be to stay in. The risk/reward was ++EV. You got exposure to an approval which would launch price - while at the same time the BTC price might not fall if SEC disapproved.
- this proved true in the week after decision
I guessed it needed to retest the capitulation to $975. Bink
I guessed three red candles on the daily and a retest to $1100 resistance (and fail). Pretty much happened.
Now we need the loose small cap crap to rollover and the BTC plunge can commence.
Oh yeah. $1401 lol
Of course Karpeles read the thread. It's virtually (crypto pun) the only sane, non fanboy stuff on the web
Don't forget Sonatine salted the thread with the assertion Karpeles might be Dread Pirate Roberts in a self serving & successful ploy to bait me, Karpeles and the authorities.
Druff is such a fan of regulation and authority that he agreed not to reveal his source. I did appeciate his cryptic post nevertheless.
You can sneak diss all you want, but it's hitting 1401, and when it does sell sell sell. YOU'RE WELCOMED!
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
Damn more than 4 times higher in two months. I should have got in on this...
More (non-technical) forking discussion, for those interested: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...oins-fork-road
I agree with this.
A fork will be a fucking mess. Two different bitcoins will be created (the existing BTC and the new BTU), which will confuse the fuck out of most casual users, who are already confused by bitcoin in the first place.
I also don't think there's enough interest in bitcoin to prop up two versions of it. One will crash and burn pretty quickly.
Anyone holding bitcoin will get fucked value-wise.
Doug Polk said a lot of his net worth is in bitcoin. Same for some other poker players. That seems like the equivalent to having a lot of your net worth on an unregulated poker site like UB or FTP. What could go wrong?
I hope for Polk's sake this isn't true.Doug Polk said a lot of his net worth is in bitcoin. Same for some other poker players. That seems like the equivalent to having a lot of your net worth on an unregulated poker site like UB or FTP. What could go wrong?
Aside from the obvious instability, the big problem here is that BTC has a greater downside at the moment than upside.
Simply put, right now a crash to 345 (about 1/3 the current value) is far more likely than a run up to 3100 (about 3 times the current value).
I realize that's an oversimplification, but the higher you buy into BTC, the more difficult it becomes to multiply your money, so the upside starts to disappear.
Sure, on the other side of the coin, a loss of 300 points from 1000 isn't nearly as devastating as loss of 300 points from 400, but at the same time, that 300 point loss is much more likely to occur from 1000 than from 400.
Anyway, there are too many dark clouds over bitcoin right now -- perhaps the most since the failure of MtGox.
The fork is looking increasingly likely, China is demanding know-your-customer for exchanges, and the users are getting fed up with the transaction times and fees.
Right now there's still enough believers to scratch it back up to 1200-ish following a crash, but soon enough it's likely to tank hard, and if that fork happens, we'll be in unchartered territory.
Srsly, if you're reading this, you should advise your friend/employer Polk to get his money out of BTC now, and only leave enough for what he needs as a backup bankroll for his online poker play.
This is the exact thought process many use on the stock market.
Oh Google doubled in the last year. It's going to be way easier for it to crash than to double again.
Same for bitcoin when it was 50 then 100 then 200 then 400 then 800.
We don't know where bitcoin is going. If you haven't grasped that concept in the thread yet please don't advise people what to do with their investments.
Diversify yes. But cash it all out now?
FFS, Druff! This is true for *any* asset! A drop to 1/3rd value is a loss of 2/3rds of value, while an increase to 3x value is an increase of 200%. How are the scales of those changes comparable???I hope for Polk's sake this isn't true.
Aside from the obvious instability, the big problem here is that BTC has a greater downside at the moment than upside.
Simply put, right now a crash to 345 (about 1/3 the current value) is far more likely than a run up to 3100 (about 3 times the current value).
I realize that's an oversimplification, but the higher you buy into BTC, the more difficult it becomes to multiply your money, so the upside starts to disappear.
Sure, on the other side of the coin, a loss of 300 points from 1000 isn't nearly as devastating as loss of 300 points from 400, but at the same time, that 300 point loss is much more likely to occur from 1000 than from 400.
Anyway, there are too many dark clouds over bitcoin right now -- perhaps the most since the failure of MtGox.
The fork is looking increasingly likely, China is demanding know-your-customer for exchanges, and the users are getting fed up with the transaction times and fees.
Right now there's still enough believers to scratch it back up to 1200-ish following a crash, but soon enough it's likely to tank hard, and if that fork happens, we'll be in unchartered territory.
Srsly, if you're reading this, you should advise your friend/employer Polk to get his money out of BTC now, and only leave enough for what he needs as a backup bankroll for his online poker play.
_____________________________________________
I don't understand why a clearly +EV player like Doug Polk would hold is winnings in a forum of currency whose value gain/loss is random at best.
Unless you want to give Polk credit as a bitcoin market genius, he's a fool to be risking his money in such a way.
It's just not a good way to store net worth -- even a decent portion of your net worth.
I only am holding BTC at this point for gambling purposes.
Really depends on how and when he invested.
Hypothetically let's guess someone made 3.5 million from poker after taxes up until 2-3 years ago. Then they won 1 million when bitcoins were 20% or less as what they are now. They would now have like 5 million in bitcoin which doesn't mean all of their liquid cash is tied into bitcoin and would make their net worth significant in bitcoin.
I know a lot of people who are just hoarding a shitload of bitcoin hoping there is a run to the moon and they get filthy rich like this
If you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
It really depends on how much you earn. The more you make, typically the more you pay in % termsIf you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
Your second statement may be true in some form depending on exact laws. I know some people who report based on what they cash out and not what they win and keep online.
So if one wins and converts their online poker chips to Bitcoin should they pay taxes on the bitcoin? Or pay taxes when they convert the bitcoin to USD at some point?
This trick would only work if Doug never planned to turn the BTC into cash, or if he felt he was just on a huge heater, and unlikely to win all that much in years going forward.If you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
Otherwise, deferring such taxes is just transferring the problem to later.
Also, by US tax law, if you make money on BTC appreciating, you owe taxes on that, too.
I think Polk is just withdrawing his online poker winnings into bitcoin, and then deciding to just hold them, likely because he believes bitcoin will appreciate and make him even more money. The past two years' history of bitcoin is probably especially making him feel that way.
I'm just saying that I wouldn't be trusting a large portion of my life savings into something so fragile as bitcoin, especially because the upside is now diminished, especially with the problems we are seeing on the horizon.
I say the upside is diminished because, even absent of bitcoin's latest problems, there is going to be a ceiling. Bitcoin is never going to rise to $50k each, whereas someone who bought at $100 still had a realistic shot at seeing it appreciate to $5000, given the quick rise they saw from $5 to $100. Someone buying in at $100 had a far higher chance of seeing their money multiply on a large scale than someone buying in at $1000.
When it was $2 people said this about $100, when it was $100 people said this about $1k.This trick would only work if Doug never planned to turn the BTC into cash, or if he felt he was just on a huge heater, and unlikely to win all that much in years going forward.
Otherwise, deferring such taxes is just transferring the problem to later.
Also, by US tax law, if you make money on BTC appreciating, you owe taxes on that, too.
I think Polk is just withdrawing his online poker winnings into bitcoin, and then deciding to just hold them, likely because he believes bitcoin will appreciate and make him even more money. The past two years' history of bitcoin is probably especially making him feel that way.
I'm just saying that I wouldn't be trusting a large portion of my life savings into something so fragile as bitcoin, especially because the upside is now diminished, especially with the problems we are seeing on the horizon.
I say the upside is diminished because, even absent of bitcoin's latest problems, there is going to be a ceiling. Bitcoin is never going to rise to $50k each, whereas someone who bought at $100 still had a realistic shot at seeing it appreciate to $5000, given the quick rise they saw from $5 to $100. Someone buying in at $100 had a far higher chance of seeing their money multiply on a large scale than someone buying in at $1000.
Predicting a ceiling on something like this is just guessing IMO
There are currently 7 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 7 guests)
Reply With Quote
