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Thread: Official POLL / DATA DISCUSSION Thread: President Obama / Governor Romney

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    Official POLL / DATA DISCUSSION Thread: President Obama / Governor Romney

    Please stay on topic. Special Note, there are plenty of threads where you, as the user, can flame me. This thread is geared to polls on the Presidential Election (and/or House and Senate).

    Scott Rasmussen was deemed the the most accurate pollster after the 2008 election and called the margin spot on. This is simply a fact. I will continually rely on his poll data in this thread, others can cite other polls, although I believe most pollsters alter their sample size based upon their politics, that they poll more Republicans or Democrats to fit their ideology. There are a LOT of awful polls out there on both sides of the fence.

    As of October 6th, these are the latest Rasmussen numbers. The official "Debate" numbers come out tomorrow, this is merely a glimpse of voters with a 2/3 sample size. They may change tomorrow when the official poll is released, but the trend is your friend. It appears Romney got a big bump from the debate.

    If you have poll data, post it here.

    National:
    Romney 49
    Obama 47

    Florida:
    Romney 49
    Obama 47

    Virginia:
    Romney 49
    Obama 48

    Ohio
    Obama 50
    Romney 49

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset69
    This is my most degen moment in life. I have been dry for two weeks and bored out of my cranium. So I roll by the liquor store and pick up a fifth a goose for just a couple of mixers. One vodka and tonic turns into 5 and next thing I know I am at the casino. I am at the tables in action that is beyond my fucking bankroll. I know it and buy in for the max my ATM card will let me, $1,000.

    The SECOND hand I spike a dirty set, 777, and I push all in and get insta call by AK who has a flush draw. Then the obvious happens, a diamond on the turn and my entire stack is fucking gone. He is fucking so excited and does the apology thing as he scoops all my fucking chips into his pile. I am so tilted I walk up to the bar and drain two doubles in a matter of a minute.

    The great thing about a casino is how easy they make it for the degen gambler. I mean every fucking billboard advertisement they have there is always that stupid piece of shit GA hotline number at the bottom like they are doing some fucking public service. Yet they have cash windows for degens so that if your ATM blocks you from any withdrawls beyond your daily limit they figure out a way to deduct your card through a purchase.

    So I hand the lady my card and she hands me another $1,000. I go back to the table and poof. Nothing is going right. I am getting killed. Another $1,000. Poof. I can't even remember the hands I was so faced. Every fucking card went against me. And the one time I hit quads nobody bet. Nut flush nobody bet. Yet when I spike two pairs my opponent hits a set or flush... I finally went on a mini heater only to lose it all with the ass end of a straight.

    Bottom line is I spent money I did not have. I dropped about $7K as I also donated to the roulette wheel and craps table in an attempt to get even. My $1,400 rent check will bounce Tuesday and I think I have swine flu as my neck glands are swollen. I must have looked pretty stupid to passer bys in the casino parking lot asleep in my Navigator. My fucking landlord is going to be in my grill this week, can't wait for that. She is fucking relentless. Last year when I forgot to pay on time she came to my door at 9am asking for the money.

    Bottom line is I am severely fucked. I took a major ass fucking last night. It was all due to the drink. I have to keep telling myself it is not my fault. I have a disease called alcoholism and it is not my fault. Maybe I need to give the AA another chance. I have $400 in my checking account which I need to take out so I can live for the next few days.

    Sweet fucking life.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirtyB View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset69
    This is my most degen moment in life. I have been dry for two weeks and bored out of my cranium. So I roll by the liquor store and pick up a fifth a goose for just a couple of mixers. One vodka and tonic turns into 5 and next thing I know I am at the casino. I am at the tables in action that is beyond my fucking bankroll. I know it and buy in for the max my ATM card will let me, $1,000.

    The SECOND hand I spike a dirty set, 777, and I push all in and get insta call by AK who has a flush draw. Then the obvious happens, a diamond on the turn and my entire stack is fucking gone. He is fucking so excited and does the apology thing as he scoops all my fucking chips into his pile. I am so tilted I walk up to the bar and drain two doubles in a matter of a minute.

    The great thing about a casino is how easy they make it for the degen gambler. I mean every fucking billboard advertisement they have there is always that stupid piece of shit GA hotline number at the bottom like they are doing some fucking public service. Yet they have cash windows for degens so that if your ATM blocks you from any withdrawls beyond your daily limit they figure out a way to deduct your card through a purchase.

    So I hand the lady my card and she hands me another $1,000. I go back to the table and poof. Nothing is going right. I am getting killed. Another $1,000. Poof. I can't even remember the hands I was so faced. Every fucking card went against me. And the one time I hit quads nobody bet. Nut flush nobody bet. Yet when I spike two pairs my opponent hits a set or flush... I finally went on a mini heater only to lose it all with the ass end of a straight.

    Bottom line is I spent money I did not have. I dropped about $7K as I also donated to the roulette wheel and craps table in an attempt to get even. My $1,400 rent check will bounce Tuesday and I think I have swine flu as my neck glands are swollen. I must have looked pretty stupid to passer bys in the casino parking lot asleep in my Navigator. My fucking landlord is going to be in my grill this week, can't wait for that. She is fucking relentless. Last year when I forgot to pay on time she came to my door at 9am asking for the money.

    Bottom line is I am severely fucked. I took a major ass fucking last night. It was all due to the drink. I have to keep telling myself it is not my fault. I have a disease called alcoholism and it is not my fault. Maybe I need to give the AA another chance. I have $400 in my checking account which I need to take out so I can live for the next few days.

    Sweet fucking life.
    I sent a note to Druff to remove your trolling. Do you know how ridiculous you look right now?

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Do you know how ridiculous you look right now?

    Less ridiculous than the guy who wrote this 2 weeks ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Been a wild ride but the disrespect is unsettling. Been around these parts since 2007. I call the 2007/8 the dark years for me.

    But 2011/12 I am making loads of money. I am they guy that over-tips in bars <--------------- ME

    Do you people know how smart I am? I have an MBA from a great school.

    If and only if I get respect being smart, otherwise I am out of this place:


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    Cubic Zirconia
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    Its obvious Dirty B had this 4 year old DD post lock and loaded after you tilted him in the Debait discussion thread.

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boots2yas View Post
    Its obvious Dirty B had this 4 year old DD post lock and loaded after you tilted him in the Debait discussion thread.
    Incorrect.

    http://www.donkdown.com/forum/fuckin...t68434-20.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Please stay on topic. Special Note, there are plenty of threads where you, as the user, can flame me. This thread is geared to polls on the Presidential Election (and/or House and Senate).

    Scott Rasmussen was deemed the the most accurate pollster after the 2008 election and called the margin spot on. This is simply a fact. I will continually rely on his poll data in this thread, others can cite other polls, although I believe most pollsters alter their sample size based upon their politics, that they poll more Republicans or Democrats to fit their ideology.
    He actually tied with Pew. How did he do in 2010?

    Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
    By NATE SILVER

    The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

    Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/

    "Independent Pollster" Scott Rasmussen Headlines Republican Fundraisers
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/03...adlines/186270

    Rasmussen also does not call cell phones. What type of skew would this lead to? Older and more conservative. Rasmussen also worked for the Bush campaign and wrote columns for the super right website WND.

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    Druff could you please merge this with Rob's other thread on almost the same topic? Thanks.



    http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...ey-POLL-thread

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    I dont give a shit who wins.

    I got 200 acres, river running through it, guns, ammo, 10s of thousands of dollars of booze in containers, companies in other countries taking in multiple currencies as a hedge again the USA dollar and lots of gold and silver. I also got an out to live in Canada permanently if needed.

    I am pretty sure both these fuckers will make the situation worse. They both want to waste money on shit they just want to do it in different ways.

    IF I am wrong and they turn shit around, I still mostly win.

    Save yourself. lol if you think these politicians give a fuck about you or your problems.

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    If you have another pollster, post his results. I am sticking with this guy:


    According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%

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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    If you have another pollster, post his results. I am sticking with this guy:


    According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."[40] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%
    I get it. He was right once. Lol. This whole thread is a .
    Only Rasmussen. Only the first poll showing Romney being ahead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bukowski72 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Please stay on topic. Special Note, there are plenty of threads where you, as the user, can flame me. This thread is geared to polls on the Presidential Election (and/or House and Senate).

    Scott Rasmussen was deemed the the most accurate pollster after the 2008 election and called the margin spot on. This is simply a fact. I will continually rely on his poll data in this thread, others can cite other polls, although I believe most pollsters alter their sample size based upon their politics, that they poll more Republicans or Democrats to fit their ideology.
    He actually tied with Pew. How did he do in 2010?

    Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
    By NATE SILVER

    The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

    Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/

    "Independent Pollster" Scott Rasmussen Headlines Republican Fundraisers
    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/03...adlines/186270

    Rasmussen also does not call cell phones. What type of skew would this lead to? Older and more conservative. Rasmussen also worked for the Bush campaign and wrote columns for the super right website WND.
    Actually Rasmussen Reports is one of the most well respected, fair and accurate polling services. Most agree Rasmussen has been most accurate in Presidential election polling. Even Nate Silver admitted this after Rasmussen got it right in 2008:

    FiveThirtyEight.com, a liberal Web site run by Nate Silver, found that Mr. Rasmussen had the third-highest mark for accuracy of any pollster in last year's elections. He predicted a six-point Obama victory; the final margin was seven points. In 2009, Rasmussen did it again. His final survey in New Jersey had Republican Chris Christie beating Democrat Jon Corzine by three points, exactly the margin of Mr. Christie's victory.

    Bukowski72's post cites Nate Silver's selective nitpicking about Rasmussen's results in 2010 when the fact is that overall, in 2010, Rasmussen got it right there too. As he told Salon:

    “We showed the generic ballot numbers predicting a significant victory for Republicans all through 2010, and that worked out as we expected,” Rasmussen said. Noting polls the firm did on Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and Scott Brown in Massachusetts, he added: “We were the first to pick up the power of what later became the Tea Party movement.”

    Rasmussen results 2010

    It's important to remember that Nate Silver works for the far-left, Obama propaganda rag, the New York Times. He is a liberal Democrat who has publicly acknowledged that he supports Obama. Before moving to the NYT Nate worked for the far-left website Daily Kos.

    Nate is relatively new to political predicting. He used to predict baseball games. Nothing wrong with a sports background. After all Scott Rasmussen founded ESPN.

    Nate Silver is also a cozy insider with the Obama campaign. The Obama campaign fed Silver a tremendous amount of secret internal polling material during the 2008 cycle. Nate Silver did not disclose this shocking fact when, ethically, he should have reported it. However, Silver hypocritically attacked Scott Rasmussen as unethical for OPENLY doing some work for the GOP in 2004! Nate Silver's true intent is to discourage Republicans and influence undecided voters to go with a failed President Nate Silver says will be a certain winner.

    Nate Silver claimed to write a completely independent prediction blog. He doesn't. The truth is the Obama campaign offered Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight access to thousands of pages of its own internal polls, as long as Silver promised not to tell anyone. Nate Silver signed the deal with the devil, never disclosed his bias and thus ruined his reputation.

    Presidential internal polls are rich with great data because they spare no expense mining those stats. Nate Silver could never afford to gather such information. He's a sports gambler and poker player. But thanks to his insider information and the US economy tanking, Nate came up smelling roses in 2008. However, the wunderkind failed miserably in 2010 and elsewhere.

    So far Nate Silver has been little more than a shill for the left, a one hit wonder pushing a book on Amazon.com, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't. If he blows the the 2012 Presidential election, he won't even be a footnote in history. If he's right, he'll sell more books.
    Last edited by SixToedPete; 10-06-2012 at 08:26 PM.

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    Starting to warm up to SixToedPete. More I read his posts, the more I think he is ahead of the curve. I was wrong about Six Toes before. He said he was from MA so I thought he might have been a closet dupe.

    In any event, post debate polls come out tomorrow. Will post them here. Rasmussen. Other polls welcome.

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    Re-posted

    A poll from Gravis Marketing, conducted Oct. 3-4, shows Mr. Romney with a 49.4 percent to 45.9 percent lead over Mr. Obama. The president had held nearly a 5-point lead in a poll conducted Sept. 25, at 50.2 percent to 45.5 percent.

    Read more: New polls show Romney overtakes Obama in Colorado, nationally - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/...obama-colorado

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    Gold 408Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    I dont give a shit who wins.

    I got 200 acres, river running through it, guns, ammo, 10s of thousands of dollars of booze in containers, companies in other countries taking in multiple currencies as a hedge again the USA dollar and lots of gold and silver. I also got an out to live in Canada permanently if needed.

    I am pretty sure both these fuckers will make the situation worse. They both want to waste money on shit they just want to do it in different ways.

    IF I am wrong and they turn shit around, I still mostly win.

    Save yourself. lol if you think these politicians give a fuck about you or your problems.
    C$ has literally become my hero in one single post.

    The fact that there are any further posts in this thread other than #1 praising this post #2 trolling drunky, which is hysterical at times, I find egregious and expect the situation rectified immed.

    Also hilarious that bottomset pm's Dan Druff to remove a post here, at Druff's forum, from Barry, one of Druff's better friends.

    if Barry's post was a black cock embroidered with Druff's nieces and nephews with photoshopped black cocks in their mouths on it, Druff would probably chuckle and disregard it. FFS bottomset, think things through one time.

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    Gold 408Mike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Re-posted

    A poll from Gravis Marketing, conducted Oct. 3-4, shows Mr. Romney with a 49.4 percent to 45.9 percent lead over Mr. Obama. The president had held nearly a 5-point lead in a poll conducted Sept. 25, at 50.2 percent to 45.5 percent.

    Read more: New polls show Romney overtakes Obama in Colorado, nationally - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/...obama-colorado
    Serious questions, get ready, be coherent if possible:

    #1- Do you want Romney to win?
    1b- May I ask why?

    #2- Why do you still follow the presidential election?
    2b- There is no real transfer of power, it's a farce, agree or disagree and why?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 408Mike View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan View Post
    Re-posted

    A poll from Gravis Marketing, conducted Oct. 3-4, shows Mr. Romney with a 49.4 percent to 45.9 percent lead over Mr. Obama. The president had held nearly a 5-point lead in a poll conducted Sept. 25, at 50.2 percent to 45.5 percent.

    Read more: New polls show Romney overtakes Obama in Colorado, nationally - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/...obama-colorado
    Serious questions, get ready, be coherent if possible:

    #1- Do you want Romney to win?
    1b- May I ask why?

    #2- Why do you still follow the presidential election?
    2b- There is no real transfer of power, it's a farce, agree or disagree and why?
    This thread is about poll data. Not a political discussion. Thanks in advance.

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    Gold 408Mike's Avatar
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    Poll data eventually leads to discussion otherwise it is useless. I can throw around numbers supporting say the fact that corn should be converted into ethanol, but without a discussion on the topic, not only do you get useless numbers thrown out, which have no emotional ties to anything, but you'd also walk away probably believing it's a good thing, because someone smart like Barry didn't step in and point out it's inefficiences and the rise in cost to countries we export to will hurt corn exports and starving people will get less food as a result of it. Just as a hypothetical.

    Poll data should lead to discussion, not be the fucking discussion, think about it.

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    one more bad debate for Obama and it will be Romney by a landslide
    Quote Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts View Post

    Look Corrigan, you've been a sideshow clown around here from the jump
    It's tough to take you seriously when you've made your bones acting the fool.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit View Post
    Which one is he?

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    Platinum DirtyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rollo Tomasi View Post
    one more bad debate for Obama and it will be Romney by a landslide
    Do you have any interest in backing your bitch mouth up with actual currency?

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