This One's Been Bothering Me - 1/2 Live

[WillieMcFML]

I cover everybody with about $440, a couple other's have 300ish stacks.
Villian in this hand starts with about $350, he had $62 about 15 minutes ago.

7am, bunch of old AARP having nits, only one other semi-competent player.


Ep opens to $7, a total of 7 people go to see the flop including me in the cutoff with (33)


flop a23

mp leads out for $20, i call, as does the button and ep.


turn 10 (putting two hearts on the board)

mp bets out $30 this time, i make it $80, Button (who is about 70 years old) makes it $230


--now my default here against an old nit 3-betting is to instamuck (which was also my gut reaction), unless I have the stone cold nuts.
as played, i feel like i'm holding the second nuts at this point...

the problem is if you add 22 to his range maybe 15% of the time and a10 in there 10-5%, i can def make the math work
even if he turns his hand faceup and has the 45, i still fill up about a quarter of the time for about ~$800 pot

or i can just fold and still be up about $150, with a very good table draw


thoughts?

[SpewArtist]

You said it yourself, villain's range includes 22, AT, and some other hands IMO so.......

 

Get all the fucking money in as fast as you can

[WillieMcFML]

You said it yourself, villain's range includes 22, AT, and some other hands IMO so.......

 

Get all the fucking money in as fast as you can

i probably didn't make myself too clear, but i think his range is pretty polarized (hands like AT are in his range, but a small chunk of the time)

imo the button has 45 at least half the time

[WillieMcFML]

i wish scotty clark could post on this site

*(

[SetofKs]

I could never fold this. I didn't run the exact math but if he shows 54 and you put him in you'd be paying about $250 for about an implied $550 pot. You'd be getting about 2.2:1 on a pot that you have 23% shot at. So I don't know the exact EV here but I think it would only be like -$20 or so? When you factor in the possibilites that you could have possibly have him dominated, even if you think its unlikely, I think you probably have to get em in here. Sucks putting this much stack in when you figure you will probably lose most of the time, but I think it is the right play.

[WillieMcFML]

I could never fold this. I didn't run the exact math but if he shows 54 and you put him in you'd be paying about $250 for about an implied $550 pot. You'd be getting about 2.2:1 on a pot that you have 23% shot at. So I don't know the exact EV here but I think it would only be like -$20 or so? When you factor in the possibilites that you could have possibly have him dominated, even if you think its unlikely, I think you probably have to get em in here. Sucks putting this much stack in when you figure you will probably lose most of the time, but I think it is the right play.

he still had he still had like $120 behind

[SetofKs]

Damn just did the math and you'd actually lose $66 on average if you knew he had 54. But, you still assome there is some reasonable chance you have him dominated. You said you have the second nuts so the only hand he can dominate you with is 54. I still think you get em inl. You say you think there is at least 50% chance he has 45. Even if you think there is 75% chance he has 54 I think you should still get em in.

[zealanddonk]

i wish scotty clark could post on this site

*(

I'd rather 408Mike post here after a 24 hr meth binge than scotty clark posting here.

O and obv the other guy has 56 and knows 4 is gonna river, adjust your play accordingly.