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Thread: Stocks/Investments Thread (formerly "ELON MUSK IS GOD" thread)

  1. #2581
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Von Strucker View Post

    government giving out 40k loans to small business owners and free 10k if you pay 30k back fairly fast.

    gonna do this as should every Canadian business owner.
    Is that through the bank? And where are the details on 10k being a grant?
    email i received from bank...



    What is it?


    Its a $40,000 government‑guaranteed loan to help eligible businesses pay for operating expenses, payroll and other non‑deferrable expenses which are critical to sustain business continuity.


    Until December 31, 2020, the Canada Emergency Business Account will be funded as a revolving line of credit for $40,000.


    After December 31, 2020, any outstanding balance on the revolving $40,000 line of credit will be converted into a non‑revolving 5‑year term loan maturing on December 31, 2025, at which time the balance must be paid in full.


    No interest applies until January 1, 2023.


    Commencing on January 1, 2023, interest accrues on the balance of the term loan at the rate of 5% per annum, payable monthly on the last day of each month.


    If you pay 75% of the balance of the term loan (as at January 1, 2021), on or before December 31, 2022, the remaining balance of your term loan will be forgiven. For example, if your balance is $40,000 on January 1, 2021 and you repay $30,000 on or before December 31, 2022, the remaining $10,000 will be forgiven.


    If you do not repay 75% of the balance of the term loan (as at January 1, 2021) on or before December 31, 2022, the full loan balance and all accrued and unpaid interest will be due and payable on December 31, 2025.

     
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      Sanlmar: Oh Canada glorious and free. Harry and Meghan are online
    all hail Hydra



    Originally Posted by DanDruff:Since I'm a 6'2" Republican with an average-sized nose and a last name which doesn't end with "stein", "man", or "berg", I can hide among the goyim and remain undetected unless I open my mouth about money matters.

  2. #2582
    CCL Carnival

    What I recall:

    $6bbond raise @ 12.5% (complete trash). However, $17b chased the sale down to something like 11.75%. Druffs credit card has a lower rate. People chasing returns though.

    More stock to be issued too.

    CCL got punished

    All the consumer discretionary stuff, casinos etc are gonna get similar friendly financing. Margins were falling before during the best of bubble times. Go ahead and split 6’s.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-03-2020 at 06:02 AM.

  3. #2583
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    CCL Carnival

    What I recall:

    $6mill bond raise @ 12.5% (complete trash). However, $17m chased the sale down to something like 11.75%. Druffs credit card has a lower rate. People chasing returns though.

    More stock to be issued too.

    CCL got punished

    All the consumer discretionary stuff, casinos etc are gonna get similar friendly financing. Margins were falling before during the best of bubble times. Go ahead and split 6s.
    BILLION

    and ouch at this statement
    Carnival says that it needs $1 billion monthly to continue operating, even if it's not catering to passengers.

  4. #2584
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yup, here's the Motley Fool (which pains me to link) saying the same thing as the above two posts: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...an-cruise.aspx

    Baffling how RCL is still at $25 now. That won't last.

    NCL and CCL still have farther to fall, despite being at $8.

    Remember when I told everyone not to touch these cruise lines until this whole thing is all over, and perhaps not even then. I'm starting to believe that all of these companies will go under.

    The reduction of social distancing will occur in phases. Phase 1 will be, "It's okay to go back to work", Phase 2 will be, "It's okay to invite friends over again, and to go out to restaurants", and then several other phases, and the last of all of them will be, "It's okay to go on a cruise ship."

    There may not be cruising at all until a vaccine is developed. I don't think these companies can ride it out for anywhere near that long. Whether they can even make it to July 2020 is questionable.

    We may see the destruction of all cruise ilnes, followed by a rebirth with a somewhat different business model and target age demographic.

    Most laughable are the people with cancelled cruises from March to May who are skipping the refund and instead booking (highly marked up) future cruises at a supposed "discount".

    When these cruise companies crash and burn, their "Future Cruise Credits" won't be worth the e-mail bytes they're printed on.

  5. #2585
    I think your over estimating peoples self respect and dignity. If given a good enough deal,people will definately sail again.
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.

  6. #2586
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yup, here's the Motley Fool (which pains me to link) saying the same thing as the above two posts: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...an-cruise.aspx

    Baffling how RCL is still at $25 now. That won't last.

    NCL and CCL still have farther to fall, despite being at $8.

    Remember when I told everyone not to touch these cruise lines until this whole thing is all over, and perhaps not even then. I'm starting to believe that all of these companies will go under.

    The reduction of social distancing will occur in phases. Phase 1 will be, "It's okay to go back to work", Phase 2 will be, "It's okay to invite friends over again, and to go out to restaurants", and then several other phases, and the last of all of them will be, "It's okay to go on a cruise ship."

    There may not be cruising at all until a vaccine is developed. I don't think these companies can ride it out for anywhere near that long. Whether they can even make it to July 2020 is questionable.

    We may see the destruction of all cruise ilnes, followed by a rebirth with a somewhat different business model and target age demographic.

    Most laughable are the people with cancelled cruises from March to May who are skipping the refund and instead booking (highly marked up) future cruises at a supposed "discount".

    When these cruise companies crash and burn, their "Future Cruise Credits" won't be worth the e-mail bytes they're printed on.

    Time to buy

  7. #2587
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I’m close to all in right now on MGM, JBLU and CCL.

    I bought at resistance in all three over the past week and have averaged down the Way down. JBLU and CCL are at close to 52 weeknlow MGM has held on well.

    Be a tight stop from here . If any fall below 5-7% of the low it’s time to capitulate and I will have given back all the gains from last weeks run up. If this happens it’ll need to think when to re enter.

    BTW for anyone talking about bankruptcy for CCL - JPM and GS just brokered and held a over subscribed 11% Bond raise and took on 1.3B in equity. You think they going under soon?

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      Onestep: already posted by me lol

  8. #2588
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Im close to all in right now on MGM, JBLU and CCL.

    I bought at resistance in all three over the past week and have averaged down the Way down. JBLU and CCL are at close to 52 weeknlow MGM has held on well.

    Be a tight stop from here . If any fall below 5-7% of the low its time to capitulate and I will have given back all the gains from last weeks run up. If this happens itll need to think when to re enter.

    BTW for anyone talking about bankruptcy for CCL - JPM and GS just brokered and held a over subscribed 11% Bond raise and took on 1.3B in equity. You think they going under soon?

    Name:  1275F4B9-8904-4507-B6DF-890572EB09E2.jpeg
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    I have been trying to play some options on the cruise lines but the mid-term market (September/October) has tons of interest but almost no volume. Seems like a market can't get going because everyone thinks these things are going to the moon shortly.

  9. #2589

  10. #2590
    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Von Strucker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post

    Is that through the bank? And where are the details on 10k being a grant?
    email i received from bank...



    What is it?


    Its a $40,000 government‑guaranteed loan to help eligible businesses pay for operating expenses, payroll and other non‑deferrable expenses which are critical to sustain business continuity.

    .
    My bank doesn't know details yet. Have you been able to apply?

     
    Comments
      
      Baron Von Strucker: Haven't applied yet. waiting for the small print cliffs.

  11. #2591
    Just to keep you sharp

    Airlines are not receiving a bailout. In populist times a history of using bonds and profit to juice stock to get a bonus that puts your compensation @ 1000x a worker just ain’t gonna happen.

    That established ..

    You know the airlines have gone bk multiple times? They can go bk on Tues and Thursday you’re winging your way to Boston. It’ll be transparent to you.

    Please note your closest exit.

  12. #2592
    A small bank in West Virginia has become the first institution to fail during the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday. The First State Bank of Barboursville with $152 million in total assets was closed Friday by the West Virginia Division of Financial Institutions. The bank's $139.5 million in deposits will be acquired by MVB Bank Inc. of Fairmont, W.Va. The four branches of The First State Bank will reopen as branches of MVB Bank on Saturday, the FDIC said.

  13. #2593
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    A small bank in West Virginia has become the first institution to fail during the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday. The First State Bank of Barboursville with $152 million in total assets was closed Friday by the West Virginia Division of Financial Institutions. The bank's $139.5 million in deposits will be acquired by MVB Bank Inc. of Fairmont, W.Va. The four branches of The First State Bank will reopen as branches of MVB Bank on Saturday, the FDIC said.
    did you have this in the bank failure pool?

  14. #2594
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    A small bank in West Virginia has become the first institution to fail during the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday. The First State Bank of Barboursville with $152 million in total assets was closed Friday by the West Virginia Division of Financial Institutions. The bank's $139.5 million in deposits will be acquired by MVB Bank Inc. of Fairmont, W.Va. The four branches of The First State Bank will reopen as branches of MVB Bank on Saturday, the FDIC said.
    Interesting.

    As most of you know, tons of banks failed in 2008. I had a bunch of money in one of them and it was a big sweat to see if the government would handle it right and quickly. Aside from a $14 cashier's check charge which I Jewed my way out of, surprisingly it went fine.

    I braced myself for more of this and... it didn't happen.

    Why? Because a new model quickly emerged. When banks would fail, other banks (usually larger ones) would buy them up. During the past 10+ years, I've seen many banks I've used switch ownership for this reason. Sometimes the policies of the new bank would suck and I'd jump ship, but at least I didn't have to worry about FDIC bullshit.

    Anyway, not surprisingly, banks right now are not interested in acquiring new failbanks, hence you are seeing these failures. I'm sure we will see more.

  15. #2595
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    CCL Carnival

    What I recall:

    $6mill bond raise @ 12.5% (complete trash). However, $17m chased the sale down to something like 11.75%. Druffs credit card has a lower rate. People chasing returns though.

    More stock to be issued too.

    CCL got punished

    All the consumer discretionary stuff, casinos etc are gonna get similar friendly financing. Margins were falling before during the best of bubble times. Go ahead and split 6’s.
    BILLION

    and ouch at this statement
    Carnival says that it needs $1 billion monthly to continue operating, even if it's not catering to passengers.

    On 3/17, I said here about CCL: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post886782

    - From $52 to $12-something in the span of a month, (an now $8.50).

    - Added in Druff's prediction that in 2022, people will cruise again "normally". Maybe. 80% chance of this happening. Back to making $2 or 3b/year by 2022 or 2023.

    - CCL makes around just under 1b for the first 3 months of 2020, then loses 9b (1b/month) in last three months = 8.5b loss this year.

    - Pulled a number outta my ass and said they will need to pay about 15% interest on all these billions (sounds like it'll be 12%, even better) they need to keep them afloat (tee hee) for a year or year and a half.

    - Next year, they lose money, because of the overhang of all this shit, but, especially if they can start cruising later in 2020 on at least a modified schedule, but it's only a "small" loss.

    - 2022 maybe $2b and 2023 back to $3b as this stuff fades (vaccine/cure found? Covid-19 just goes away? Everyone has had it and is immune?).

    Dirt cheap in a good case scenario like this. $8.50 ---back to--->$52 in Mar 2023 = 6x your money.

    If you believe.

     
    Comments
      
      Onestep: rational and well thought out analysis. lets hope this is the case

  16. #2596
    Baron got an email from bank. Signup for the 40k (10k "free") loan will all be online.

    Should be up in next week or two.

  17. #2597
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Baron got an email from bank. Signup for the 40k (10k "free") loan will all be online.

    Should be up in next week or two.
    Ive already applied and recd a confirmation.

  18. #2598

  19. #2599
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post

    Well there goes my UCO gains
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.

  20. #2600
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Baron got an email from bank. Signup for the 40k (10k "free") loan will all be online.

    Should be up in next week or two.
    Ive already applied and recd a confirmation.
    Did I miss that you're Canadian?

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