we get it tine ur medium poor youve literally talked about buying a fucking mid range sedan for like 8 years now
VIX is at 44.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
tesla sent out an email saying if you want your model y faster, choose the 5 seat instead of the 7 seat model.
obviously i have no insight into their sales expectations but clearly they have a surplus of 5 seat model y's.
on top of which, their china orders have collapsed for obvious reasons.
im probably going to close out most if not all of my spy puts at the bell (because jim cramer burnt that down last night) and go short on tsla.
its just such a perfect storm for them to hit < 500 eventually and honestly 580 after market tonight seems totally realistic.
also they are packing up and moving crates out of that buffalo plant. not unexpected but the optics are pretty lurid, see perfect storm comment above.
Last edited by sonatine; 02-28-2020 at 04:16 AM.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
christ, LAKE nearly doubled in price this morning before pulling back to +25% / 26. i wonder if 40 is going to be a resistance level for it today.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
delta airlines CFO announced retirement, united cutting flights to asia. also cramer suggested people dump their airlines holdings last night after market close. no idea how many people take him seriously but worth noting regardless.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
ikr.. on the one hand we havent even begun to see the impact coronavirus is going to have on airlines, all this is purely psychological at this point. so from that perspective i think we can see another 20% slashed off value fairly fast. on the other hand, one must wonder if trumps going to bail them out, which would likely offset those market losses and perhaps then some.
in other news im binging gary numan videos on youtube because their alg has decided that no less than 90% of their suggested viewing is memetard investment videos.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Government bonds see huge rally as U.S. stock futures slump
U.S. stocks have entered correction territory in what S&P Dow Jones Indices says is the shortest time span in over 70 years. Futures prices imply a 75% chance of an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve within the next month.
The reaction doesn't make sense to Tom Porcelli , chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets , which is one of the primary dealers of U.S. Treasury securities.
"What do rate cuts at the front-end do exactly to shift the trajectory of the core short-term problems stemming from COVID-19? It boggles the mind. Cutting now when Fed funds is already sitting 100 basis points below neutral further cements the dangerous precedent already set that the only independent variable in the policy reaction function that matters is what the S&P 500 is doing of late," he says.
RBC's tracking of the U.S. economy finds it not just fine but better than average. Even the durable-goods orders report (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dur...reat-from-the- coronvirus-2020-02-27) released on Thursday had some positive signs for capital expenditure going forward.
Porcelli finds the stock market reaction severe.
"To be sure, we sympathize with the narrative that some economic activity could be lost for good. In other words, you don't double up on certain services spending once the dust settles because you put it off on COVID-19 fears. But a short-term drop-off in activity (even if not fully recoverable) has a diminishing impact on the net present value of future cash flows the further out your horizon goes! In other words, even if we are looking at a supply shock where postponed activity does not fully get recaptured, it still does not warrant a [more than] 10% repricing in a market that is supposed to be forward-looking in nature and ultimately realigns with fundamentals," he says.
Porcelli acknowledges it is difficult to trust Chinese data, but points out that the infection rate outside of Wuhan is incredibly low. The Guangdong region, with a population of 110 million, has an incredibly low 0.001% infection rate, he says.
The buzz
There are 948 new and 83,704 confirmed coronavirus cases, according to the Johns Hopkins tracker that cites government data. The number of cases in South Korea has now surpassed 2,000. The Japanese island of Hokkaido declared a state of emergency and urged residents to stay home.
The first confirmed case in sub-Saharan Africa was registered in Nigeria . All events over 1,000 people have been canceled in Switzerland , which means the Geneva Motor Show won't go ahead. Federal infectious disease experts fanned out across the Northern California city of Vacaville .
Big Lots (BIG) shares slumped after reporting worse-than-expected sales growth and reporting virus-related supply- chain disruptions.
The news outside of the virus was thin. Beyond Meat (BYND), the veggie-foods product maker that has wowed Wall Street , reported a loss in the fourth quarter. Cancer therapy company Forty Seven (FTSV) may climb after Bloomberg News reported Gilead Sciences (GILD) has approached the firm about taking it over (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-company- forty-seven-surges-after-hours-on-gilead-interest-report-2020-02-27).
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said interest-rate cuts are a possibility but not the "baseline case." "In my view, further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time," he said.
The markets
Hoo boy. U.S. stock futures have been volatile but pointing to an extension of the rout. European and Asian stocks have slumped.
Bonds have surged. The yield on the 2-year Treasury has dropped 17 basis points. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
In currency markets, the Japanese yen has surged.
The chart
Lax corporate lending has been a concern of policy makers for years -- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on the topic in May 2019 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fac...gues-business- debt-boom-isnt-the-threat-subprime-mortgages-were-2019-05-20), for instance. But now the market has taken notice. Bank of America strategists say there has been an "ominous" breakdown in the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) and pointed out that exogenous shocks often expose bad leverage, such as when the Kobe earthquake revealed the fraudulent trades made at Barings Bank .
Random reads
lol. like how is it mind boggling exactly? no one wants to leave their money in this QE-fetish-porn of a market and no one trusts trump not to fuck it up worse.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
thinkorswim is basically crashed.. cant pull up option prices, orders executed arent getting purged from held assets..
edit nm & yikes.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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